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Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model
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Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model
Creator
Zhang, Yuan
Cai, Zhenghao
Hu, Wenjie
Sun, Jiarui
You, Chong
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source
MedRxiv
abstract
The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global crisis due to its quick and wide spread over the world. A good understanding of the dynamic of the disease would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID-19. However, to the best of our knowledge, the unique features of the outbreak have limited the applications of all existing models. In this paper, a novel stochastic model is proposed which aims to account for the unique transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and capture the effects of intervention measures implemented in Mainland China. We find that, (1) instead of aberration, there is a remarkable amount of asymptomatic individuals, (2) an individual with symptoms is approximately twice more likely to pass the disease to others than that of an asymptomatic patient, (3) the transmission rate has reduced significantly since the implementation of control measures in Mainland China, (4) it is expected that the epidemic outbreak would be contained by early March in the the selected provinces and cities.
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2020-03-13
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bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.03.10.20033803
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medrxiv
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f99704d3a52a14737288ddaa3abf387bad364fe8
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https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033803
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Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model
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covid:f99704d3a52a14737288ddaa3abf387bad364fe8#body_text
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named entity 'KNOWLEDGE'
named entity '282'
covid:arg/f99704d3a52a14737288ddaa3abf387bad364fe8
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