About: Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

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About: Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020
Creator	Riou, Julien Althaus, Christian Hauser, Anthony Probst, Daniel
source	MedRxiv
abstract	AIM: In late February and early March 2020, Switzerland experienced rapid growth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections with 30,243 confirmed cases and 1,860 deaths as of 10 May 2020. The sequential introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) resulted in successful containment of the epidemic. A better understanding of how the timing of implementing NPIs influences the dynamics and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics will be crucial for the management of a potential resurgence in Switzerland. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model that describes infection, hospitalization, recovery and death due to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland. Using a maximum likelihood framework, we fitted the model to aggregated daily numbers of hospitalized patients, ICU occupancy and death from 25 February to 10 May 2020. We estimated critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and explored counterfactual scenarios of an earlier and later implementation of NPIs. RESULTS: We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.61 (95% compatibility interval, CI: 2.51-2.71) during the early exponential phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland. After the implementation of NPIs, the effective reproduction number approached Re = 0.64 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66). Based on the observed doubling times of the epidemic before and after the implementation of NPIs, we estimated that one week of early exponential spread required 3.1 weeks (95% CI: 2.8-3.3 weeks) of 'lockdown' to reduce the number of infections to the same level. Introducing the same sequence of NPIs one week earlier or later would have resulted in substantially lower (399, 95% prediction interval, PI: 347-458) and higher (8,683, 95% PI: 8,038-9,453) numbers of deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of NPIs in March 2020 prevented thousands of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Switzerland. Early implementation of NPIs during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks can reduce the number of deaths and the necessary duration of strict control measures considerably.
has issue date	2020-07-25(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	f3ac1228fc65e59f3223c79c769586ce24731030
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014
resource representing a document's title	Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020
resource representing a document's body	covid:f3ac1228fc65e59f3223c79c769586ce24731030#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'essence' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'Time is of the essence' »more»

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