About: Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation

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About: Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation
Creator	Liu, Xiuli Wang, Shouyang Li, Xuefeng Hewings, Geoffrey Qin, Minghui »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	This paper proposed a quarantine-susceptible-exposed-infectious-resistant (QSEIR) model which considers the unprecedented strict quarantine measures in almost the whole of China to resist the epidemic. We estimated model parameters from published information with the statistical method and stochastic simulation, we found the parameters that achieved the best simulation test result. The next stage involved quantitative predictions of future epidemic developments based on different containment strategies with the QSEIR model, focused on the sensitivity of the outcomes to different parameter choices in mainland China. The main results are as follows. If the strict quarantine measures are being retained, the peak value of confirmed cases would be in the range of [52438, 64090] and the peak date would be expected in the range February 7 to February 19, 2020. During March18-30, 2020, the epidemic would be controlled. The end date would be in the period from August 20 to September 1, 2020. With 80% probability, our prediction on the peak date was 4 days ahead of the real date, the prediction error of the peak value is 0.43%, both estimates are much closer to the observed values compared with published studies. The sensitive analysis indicated that the quarantine measures (or with vaccination) are the most effective containment strategy to control the epidemic, followed by measures to increase the cured rate (like finding special medicine). The long-term simulation result and sensitive analysis in mainland China showed that the QSEIR model is stable and can be empirically validated. It is suggested that the QSEIR model can be applied to predict the development trend of the epidemic in other regions or countries in the world. In mainland China, the quarantine measures can't be relaxed before the end of March 2020. China can fully resume production with appropriate anti-epidemic measures beginning in early April 2020. The results of this study also implied that other countries now facing the epidemic outbreaks should act more decisively and take in time quarantine measures though it may have negative short-term public and economic consequences.
has issue date	2020-03-13(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.09.20033498
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	ebfdcdc6495fec3c91cab1eb88b2ad557391722d
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033498
resource representing a document's title	Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation
resource representing a document's body	covid:ebfdcdc6495fec3c91cab1eb88b2ad557391722d#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'With' named entity 'September' named entity 'real' named entity 'China' named entity 'strategies' »more»

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