About: The Epidemic Severity Index: Estimating Relative Local Severity of Novel Disease Outbreaks

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	The Epidemic Severity Index: Estimating Relative Local Severity of Novel Disease Outbreaks
Creator	Davies, Gareth
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Determining the severity of a novel pathogen in the early stages is difficult in the absence of reliable data. The pattern of outbreaks for COVID-19 across the globe have differed markedly above and below +40N latitudes, suggesting very different levels of severity, but countries worldwide have implemented the same lockdown strategies. Existing methods for estimating severity appear not to have been useful in informing strategic decisions, possibly due to mismatches between the data required and those available, overly sophisticated methods with undesirable biases, or perhaps confusion and uncertainly generated by the wide range of estimates these methods produced early on. The Epidemic Severity Index (ESI) is a simple, robust method for estimating the local severity of novel epidemic outbreaks using early and widely-available data and that does not depend on any estimated values. ESI allows rapid, meaningful comparisons across territories that can be tracked as the outbreaks unfold. The ESI quantifies severity relative to a parameterised baseline rather than attempting to estimate values for infection fatality rates, case fatality rates or transmission rates. The relative nature of the ESI sidesteps any problems of confidence associated with absolute rate estimation methods and offers immediate practical strategic value.
has issue date	2020-04-29(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.23.20077685
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e6734b0eed791849124f41bc070cd3f67bf12708
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20077685
resource representing a document's title	The Epidemic Severity Index: Estimating Relative Local Severity of Novel Disease Outbreaks
resource representing a document's body	covid:e6734b0eed791849124f41bc070cd3f67bf12708#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'sophisticated' named entity 'BAN' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'DIFFICULT' named entity 'ACROSS' »more»

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