About: Impact of relaxing Covid-19 social distancing measures on rural North Wales: a simulation analysis

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: Impact of relaxing Covid-19 social distancing measures on rural North Wales: a simulation analysis Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Impact of relaxing Covid-19 social distancing measures on rural North Wales: a simulation analysis
Creator	Hughes, Dyfrig Hughes, Rhodri
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Social distancing policies aimed to limit Covid-19 are gradually being relaxed as nationally reported peaks in incident cases are passed. Population density is an important driver of national incidence rates; however peak incidences in rural regions may lag national figures by several weeks. We aimed to forecast the impact of relaxed social distancing rules on rural North Wales. Methods: Daily data on the deaths of people with a positive test for Covid-19 were obtained from Public Health Wales and the UK Government. Sigmoidal growth functions were fitted by non-linear least squares and model averaging used to extrapolate mortality over time. The dates of peak mortality incidences for North Wales, Wales and the UK; and the percentage predicted maximum mortality (as of 7th May 2020) were estimated. Results: The peak daily death rates in Wales and the UK were estimated to have occurred on the 14/04/2020 and 15/04/2020, respectively. For North Wales, this occurred on the 07/05/2020, corresponding to the date of analysis. The number of deaths reported in North Wales represents 31% of the predicted total cumulative number, compared with 71% and 60% for Wales and the UK, respectively. Conclusion: Policies governing the movement of people in the gradual release from lockdown are likely to impact significantly on areas -principally rural in nature- where cases of Covid-19, deaths and immunity are likely to be much lower than in populated areas. This is particularly difficult to manage across jurisdictions, such as between England and Wales, and in popular holiday destinations.
has issue date	2020-05-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.15.20102764
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e51f3695ba7bd75a4d907b10b5ce5397e45afa06
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.15.20102764
resource representing a document's title	Impact of relaxing Covid-19 social distancing measures on rural North Wales: a simulation analysis
resource representing a document's body	covid:e51f3695ba7bd75a4d907b10b5ce5397e45afa06#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'PEAKS' named entity 'PASSED' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'rural' named entity 'Covid-19' »more»

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2025 OpenLink Software