About: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Two Models

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Two Models
Creator	Ioannidis, John Chin, Vincent Cripps, Sally Tanner, Martin
source	MedRxiv
abstract	In this paper, we compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from two SIR models, both produced by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. One model was applied to European countries and published in Nature, concluding that complete lockdown was by far the most effective measure and 3 million deaths were avoided in the examined countries. The Imperial College team applied a different model to the USA states. Here, we show that inference is not robust to model specification and indeed changes substantially with the model used for the evolution of the time-varying reproduction number. Applying to European countries the model that the Imperial College team used for the USA states shows that complete lockdown has no or little impact, since it was introduced typically at a point when the time-varying reproduction number was already very low. We also show that results are not robust to the inclusion of additional follow-up data.
has issue date	2020-07-27(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e392466fc4dcd54b721b3ad3b7b51a5b2df5e14c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341
resource representing a document's title	Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Two Models
resource representing a document's body	covid:e392466fc4dcd54b721b3ad3b7b51a5b2df5e14c#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'MEASURE' named entity 'COMPARE' named entity 'OBTAINED' named entity 'HERE' named entity 'COUNTRIES' »more»

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