About: Critical community size for COVID-19 -- a model based approach to provide a rationale behind the lockdown

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About: Critical community size for COVID-19 -- a model based approach to provide a rationale behind the lockdown Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Critical community size for COVID-19 -- a model based approach to provide a rationale behind the lockdown
Creator	Das, Sarmistha Mukhopadhyay, Indranil Sen, Bandana
source	ArXiv
abstract	Background: Restrictive mass quarantine or lockdown has been implemented as the most important controlling measure to fight against COVID-19. Many countries have enforced 2 - 4 weeks' lockdown and are extending the period depending on their current disease scenario. Most probably the 14-day period of estimated communicability of COVID-19 prompted such decision. But the idea that, if the susceptible population drops below certain threshold, the infection would naturally die out in small communities after a fixed time (following the outbreak), unless the disease is reintroduced from outside, was proposed by Bartlett in 1957. This threshold was termed as Critical Community Size (CCS). Methods: We propose an SEIR model that explains COVID-19 disease dynamics. Using our model, we have calculated country-specific expected time to extinction (TTE) and CCS that would essentially determine the ideal number of lockdown days required and size of quarantined population. Findings: With the given country-wise rates of death, recovery and other parameters, we have identified that, if at a place the total number of susceptible population drops below CCS, infection will cease to exist after a period of TTE days, unless it is introduced from outside. But the disease will almost die out much sooner. We have calculated the country-specific estimate of the ideal number of lockdown days. Thus, smaller lockdown phase is sufficient to contain COVID-19. On a cautionary note, our model indicates another rise in infection almost a year later but on a lesser magnitude.
has issue date	2020-04-07(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e1d3c14efa34936e72cfba581948293e4bbe69ac
resource representing a document's title	Critical community size for COVID-19 -- a model based approach to provide a rationale behind the lockdown
resource representing a document's body	covid:e1d3c14efa34936e72cfba581948293e4bbe69ac#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'provide' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'CCS' named entity 'CCS' »more»

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