About: A Counterfactual Graphical Model Reveals Economic and Sociodemographic Variables as Key Determinants of Country-Wise COVID-19 Burden

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A Counterfactual Graphical Model Reveals Economic and Sociodemographic Variables as Key Determinants of Country-Wise COVID-19 Burden
Creator	Lodha, Rakesh Ahuja, Vineet Awasthi, Raghav Sethi, Tavpritesh Rakesh, ; »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Importance: Insights into the country-wise differences in COVID-19 burden can impact the policies being developed to control disease spread. Objective: Present study evaluated the possible socio-economic and health related factors (and their temporal consistency) determining the disease burden of COVID-19. Design: A retrospective analysis for identifying associations of COVID-19 burden. Setting: Data on COVID-19 statistics (number of cases, tests and deaths per million) was extracted from the website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ on 10th April and 12th May. Variables obtained to estimate the possible determinants for COVID-19 burden included economic- gross domestic product; socio-demographic- Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs indicators related to health systems, percentage Chinese diaspora; and COVID-19 trajectory- date of first case in each country, days between first reported case and 10th April, days between 100th and 1000th case, and government response stringency index (GRSI). Main outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 burden was modeled using economic and socio-demographic determinants. Consistency of inferences for two time points at three levels of increasing statistical rigor using (i) Spearman correlations, (ii) Bayesian probabilistic graphical model, and (iii) counterfactual impact was evaluated. Results: Countries economy (reflected by GDP), mainly through the testing rates, was the major and temporally consistent determinant of COVID-19 burden in the model. Reproduction number of COVID-19 was lower where mortality due to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) was higher, thus strengthening the hygiene hypothesis. There was no association between vaccination status or tuberculosis incidence and COVID burden, refuting the claims over BCG vaccination as a possible factor against COVID-19 trajectory. Conclusion and Relevance: Countries economy, through testing power, was the major determinant of COVID-19 burden. There was weak evidence for hygiene hypothesis as a protective factor against COVID-19.
has issue date	2020-06-19(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.16.20132563
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	d3ac5092ab87decf936bca4d338fd40e1deb449e
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.16.20132563
resource representing a document's title	A Counterfactual Graphical Model Reveals Economic and Sociodemographic Variables as Key Determinants of Country-Wise COVID-19 Burden
resource representing a document's body	covid:d3ac5092ab87decf936bca4d338fd40e1deb449e#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'burden' named entity 'Graphical' named entity 'POLICIES' named entity 'WISE' named entity 'COVID-19' »more»

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