About: Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
Creator	Chatterjee, Saptarshi Chatterjee, Swarnajit Karmakar, Mintu Paul, Raja Sarkar, Apurba
source	MedRxiv
abstract	We explore a standard epidemiological model, known as the SIRD model, to study the COVID-19 infection in India, and a few other countries around the world. We use (a) the stable cumulative infection of various countries and (b) the number of infection versus the tests carried out to evaluate the model. The time-dependent infection rate is set in the model to obtain the best fit with the available data. The model is simulated aiming to project the probable features of the infection in India, various Indian states, and other countries. India imposed an early lockdown to contain the infection that can be treated by its healthcare system. We find that with the current infection rate and containment measures, the total active infection in India would be maximum at the end of June or beginning of July 2020. With proper containment measures in the infected zones and social distancing, the infection is expected to fall considerably from August. If the containment measures are relaxed before the arrival of the peak infection, more people from the susceptible population will fall sick as the infection is expected to see a three-fold rise at the peak. If the relaxation is given a month after the peak infection, a second peak with a moderate infection will follow. However, a gradual relaxation applied well ahead of peak infection, leads to a two-fold increase in the peak infection. The projection of the model is highly sensitive to the choice of the parameters and the available data. Our model provides a semi-quantitative overview of the progression of COVID-19 in India, with model projections reasonably replicating the current progress. However, since the pandemic is an ongoing dynamic phenomenon, the reported results are subjected to regular updates in consonance with the acquired real data.
has issue date	2020-05-13(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.11.20098681
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	d1b8b7bf82f286edf9b1d4170694f6bc4712cd87
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098681
resource representing a document's title	Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
resource representing a document's body	covid:d1b8b7bf82f286edf9b1d4170694f6bc4712cd87#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'peak' named entity 'healthcare system' named entity 'data' named entity 'ongoing' named entity 'choice' »more»

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