About: Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020

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About: Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020
Creator	Shaman, Jeffrey Pei, Sen Yamana, Teresa
source	MedRxiv
abstract	In March and April 2020, control measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual movement and contact were adopted across the United States in an effort to slow the spread and growth of COVID-19. However, a number of states have now begun to ease these restrictions. Here, we evaluate the effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes. We use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the United States. We calibrate the model against county-level daily case and death data collected from February 21, 2020 to May 2, 2020, and project the outbreak in 3,142 US counties for 6 weeks into the future. Projections for daily reported cases, daily new infections (both reported and unreported), new and cumulative hospital bed demand, ICU bed and ventilator demand, as well as daily mortality, are generated. We observe a rebound in COVID-19 incidence and deaths beginning in late May, approximately 2 to 4 weeks after states begin to reopen. Importantly, the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the COVID-19 until it is well underway.
has issue date	2020-05-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.04.20090670
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	ceff6c8a14228e3e7cc765dac90e62f504e7ccaa
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090670
resource representing a document's title	Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020
resource representing a document's body	covid:ceff6c8a14228e3e7cc765dac90e62f504e7ccaa#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'case' named entity 'slow' named entity 'resolution' named entity 'individual' named entity 'HOSPITAL BED' »more»

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