About: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
Creator	Moore, Sean Oidtman, Rachel Perkins, T Cavany, Sean Lerch, Anita »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number of unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections during its initial invasion of the US remains unknown. We developed an approach for estimating the number of unobserved infections based on data that are commonly available shortly after the emergence of a new infectious disease. The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the US through March 12, we estimated that 22,876 (95% posterior predictive interval: 7,451 - 53,044) infections occurred in the US by this date. By comparing the model's predictions of symptomatic infections to local cases reported over time, we obtained daily estimates of the proportion of symptomatic infections detected by surveillance. This revealed that detection of symptomatic infections decreased throughout February as exponential growth of infections outpaced increases in testing. Between February 21 and March 12, we estimated an increase in detection of symptomatic infections, which was strongly correlated (median: 0.97, 95% PPI: 0.85 - 0.98) with increases in testing. These results suggest that testing was a major limiting factor in assessing the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during its initial invasion of the US.
has issue date	2020-03-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.15.20036582
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	c57ec4a78f76b5c0f61bbb2ef904c31ef2cc76e4
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036582
resource representing a document's title	Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
resource representing a document's body	covid:c57ec4a78f76b5c0f61bbb2ef904c31ef2cc76e4#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'COVID-19 cases' named entity 'posterior predictive' named entity 'March 1' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'CC-BY 4.0 International license' »more»

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