About: Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy
Creator	Yang, Yupeng Levin, Simon Klein, Eili Ma, Gatalo, Oliver »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Using a Bayesian approach to epidemiological compartmental modeling, we demonstrate the bomb-like behavior of exponential growth in COVID-19 cases can be explained by transmission of asymptomatic and mild cases that are typically unreported at the beginning of pandemic events due to lower prevalence of testing. We studied the exponential phase of the pandemic in Italy, Spain, and South Korea, and found the R0 to be 2.56 (95% CrI, 2.41-2.71), 3.23 (95% CrI, 3.06-3.4), and 2.36 (95% CrI, 2.22-2.5) if we use Bayesian priors that assume a large portion of cases are not detected. Weaker priors regarding the detection rate resulted in R0 values of 9.22 (95% CrI, 9.01-9.43), 9.14 (95% CrI, 8.99-9.29), and 8.06 (95% CrI, 7.82-8.3) and assumes nearly 90% of infected patients are identified. Given the mounting evidence that potentially large fractions of the population are asymptomatic, the weaker priors that generate the high R0 values to fit the data required assumptions about the epidemiology of COVID-19 that do not fit with the biology, particularly regarding the timeframe that people remain infectious. Our results suggest that models of transmission assuming a relatively lower R0 value that do not consider a large number of asymptomatic cases can result in misunderstanding of the underlying dynamics, leading to poor policy decisions and outcomes.
has issue date	2020-04-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.05.20054338
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	c5269a7c32a9fd92159d03dc22de1545fcfeb803
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054338
resource representing a document's title	Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy
resource representing a document's body	covid:c5269a7c32a9fd92159d03dc22de1545fcfeb803#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'remain' named entity 'typically' named entity 'biology' named entity 'EVIDENCE' named entity 'EVENTS' »more»

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