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Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast diffusion
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Academic Article
research paper
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Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast diffusion
Creator
Rossi, Luca
Berestycki, Henri
Roquejoffre, Jean-Michel
source
ArXiv
abstract
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of propagation of epidemics which exhibits this effect and allows for a quantitative analysis. The model consists of a classical $SIR$ model with diffusion, to which an additional compartment is added, formed by the infected individuals travelling on a line of fast diffusion. Exchanges between individuals on the line and in the rest of the domain are taken into account. A classical transformation allows us to reduce the proposed model to a system analogous to one we had previously introduced [5] to describe the enhancement of biological invasions by lines of fast diffusion. We establish the existence of a minimal spreading speed and we show that it may be quite large, even when the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is close to $1$. More subtle qualitative features of the final state, showing the important influence of the line, are also proved here.
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2020-05-04
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b3bb7ed414462d44175e1fc88c2bc4f41c002766
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Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast diffusion
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covid:b3bb7ed414462d44175e1fc88c2bc4f41c002766#body_text
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named entity 'A LINE'
named entity 'ALLOWS'
named entity 'ESTABLISH'
named entity 'MINIMAL'
named entity 'DIFFUSION'
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