About: A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel

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About: A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel
Creator	Phd, Shapira, Shmuel Fattal, † Hirsch, † Klausner, Ziv
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: The impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health challenge seem to be the most serious regarding respiratory viruses since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. In the absence of effective vaccine or biomedical treatment, the basic rules of public health measures have not changed, namely public distancing. Methods: We analyzed epidemiological investigation reports during the first month of the outbreak in Israel. In addition, we present a deterministic compartment model and simulations of several scenarios emphasizing quarantine and isolation policies given their efficiency. Results: We identify an abrupt change from controlled epidemic regime to an exponential growth (R_0= 2.19) in light of the actual policy-makers decisions and public behavior in Israel. Our analysis show that before the abrupt change, the new cases trend was due to returning citizens infected abroad. The abrupt change followed a holiday in which social distancing was clearly inefficient and many public gatherings were held. We further discuss three different modeled scenarios of quarantine efficiency: high-, medium-, and low-efficiency. Conclusions: Israel early lessons show that there is no allowance to compromise with the directive of social distancing. Even before the onset of the pandemic in Israel, fine-tuned but determined early decisions were taken by policy makers to monitor flight arrivals from Covid-19 affected regions and to limit public gatherings. Our analysis show that one particular holiday has shifted the occurrence curve from controlled regime to exponential growth. Therefore, even a short lapse in public responsiveness can have a dramatic effect.
has issue date	2020-03-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.26.20044412
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	b3bad2ef157e371fea5d06500f90c0f1a74d95f2
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044412
resource representing a document's title	A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel
resource representing a document's body	covid:b3bad2ef157e371fea5d06500f90c0f1a74d95f2#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'single' named entity 'POINT' named entity 'POLICY' named entity 'ISRAEL' named entity 'COVID-19' »more»

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