About: Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States
Creator	Kuhl, Ellen Linka, Kevin Peirlinck, Mathias Sahli Costabal, Francisco
source	MedRxiv
abstract	On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective effort, massive amounts of data are now being collected worldwide to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of this pandemic on the health system and the global economy. However, the precise timeline of the disease, its transmissibility, and the effect of mitigation strategies remain incompletely understood. Here we integrate a global network model with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. For the outbreak in China, in n=30 provinces, we found a latent period of 2.56+/-0.72 days, a contact period of 1.47+/-0.32 days, and an infectious period of 17.82+/-2.95 days. We assume that the latent and infectious periods are disease-specific and the contact period is behavior-specific and can vary between different communities, states, or countries. For the early stages of the outbreak in the United States, in n=50 states, we adopted the latent and infectious periods from China, and found a contact period of 3.38+/-0.69 days. Our network model predicts that - without the massive political mitigation strategies that are in place today - the United states would have faced a basic reproduction number of 5.3+/-0.95 and a nationwide peak of the outbreak on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections. Our results demonstrate how mathematical modeling can help estimate outbreak dynamics and provide decision guidelines for successful outbreak control. We anticipate that our model will become a valuable tool to estimate the potential of vaccination and quantify the effect of relaxing political measures including total lock down, shelter in place, and travel restrictions for low-risk subgroups of the population or for the population as a whole.
has issue date	2020-04-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	b1edab37b21f38120b9933f7205803befab9debf
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863
resource representing a document's title	Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States
resource representing a document's body	covid:b1edab37b21f38120b9933f7205803befab9debf#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'quantify' named entity 'May 10' named entity 'period' named entity 'basic reproduction number' named entity 'quantify' »more»

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