About: Mathematical analysis for a new nonlinear measles epidemiological system using real incidence data from Pakistan

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Mathematical analysis for a new nonlinear measles epidemiological system using real incidence data from Pakistan
Creator	Memon, Bisharat Memon, Zaibunnisa Qureshi, Sania
source	PMC
abstract	Modeling of infectious diseases is essential to comprehend dynamic behavior for the transmission of an epidemic. This research study consists of a newly proposed mathematical system for transmission dynamics of the measles epidemic. The measles system is based upon mass action principle wherein human population is divided into five mutually disjoint compartments: susceptible S(t)—vaccinated V(t)—exposed E(t)—infectious I(t)—recovered R(t). Using real measles cases reported from January 2019 to October 2019 in Pakistan, the system has been validated. Two unique equilibria called measles-free and endemic (measles-present) are shown to be locally asymptotically stable for basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] , respectively. While using Lyapunov functions, the equilibria are found to be globally asymptotically stable under the former conditions on [Formula: see text] . However, backward bifurcation shows coexistence of stable endemic equilibrium with a stable measles-free equilibrium for [Formula: see text] . A strategy for measles control based on herd immunity is presented. The forward sensitivity indices for [Formula: see text] are also computed with respect to the estimated and fitted biological parameters. Finally, numerical simulations exhibit dynamical behavior of the measles system under influence of its parameters which further suggest improvement in both the vaccine efficacy and its coverage rate for substantial reduction in the measles epidemic.
has issue date	2020-04-28(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00392-x
bibo:pmid	32435550
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	a58e8f6574084d5b03fc98bada5516acf68c19ef
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00392-x
resource representing a document's title	Mathematical analysis for a new nonlinear measles epidemiological system using real incidence data from Pakistan
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7223692
has PubMed identifier	32435550
schema:publication	Eur Phys J Plus
resource representing a document's body	covid:a58e8f6574084d5b03fc98bada5516acf68c19ef#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'SYSTEM' named entity 'EPIDEMIOLOGICAL' named entity 'USING' named entity 'DATA' »more»

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