About: CoVID-19 prediction for India from the existing data and SIR(D) model study

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About: CoVID-19 prediction for India from the existing data and SIR(D) model study Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	CoVID-19 prediction for India from the existing data and SIR(D) model study
Creator	Ghosh, Sabyasachi Pai, Haridas Rajesh, Aditya Roy, Victor Samanta, Subhasis
source	MedRxiv
abstract	CoVID-19 is spreading throughout the world at an alarming rate. So far it has spread over 200 countries in the whole world. Mathematical modelling of an epidemic like CoVID-19 is always useful for strategic decision making, especially it is very useful to gain some understanding of the future of the epidemic in densely populous countries like India. We use a simple yet effective mathematical model SIR(D) to predict the future of the epidemic in India by using the existing data. We also estimate the effect of lock-down/social isolation via a time-dependent coefficient of the model. The model study with realistic parameters set shows that the epidemic will be at its peak around the end of June or the first week of July with almost 108 Indians most likely being infected if the lock-down relaxed after May 3, 2020. However, the total number of infected population will become one-third of what predicted here if we consider that people only in the red zones (approximately one-third of India's population) are susceptible to the infection. Even in a very optimistic scenario we expect that at least the infected numbers of people will be of the order of 107.
has issue date	2020-05-08(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.05.20085902
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a48f936c5544b607f0d6d06f67912476651b0857
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.05.20085902
resource representing a document's title	CoVID-19 prediction for India from the existing data and SIR(D) model study
resource representing a document's body	covid:a48f936c5544b607f0d6d06f67912476651b0857#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'future' named entity 'peak' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Even' named entity 'WEEK' »more»

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