About: Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks
Creator	Bianco, Simone Schwartz, Ira Hindes, Jason
source	ArXiv
abstract	Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates infectious contacts, it comes with significant costs. Several recent studies have suggested that a plausible compromise strategy for minimizing epidemic risk is periodic closure, in which populations oscillate between wide-spread social restrictions and relaxation. However, no underlying theory has been proposed to predict and explain optimal closure periods as a function of epidemiological and social parameters. In this work we develop such an analytical theory for SEIR-like model diseases, showing how characteristic closure periods emerge that minimize the total outbreak, and increase predictably with the reproductive number and incubation periods of a disease, as long as both are within predictable limits. Using our approach we demonstrate a sweet-spot effect in which optimal periodic closure is maximally effective for diseases with similar incubation and recovery periods. Our results compare well to numerical simulations, including in COVID-19 models where infectivity and recovery show significant variability.
has issue date	2020-07-31(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a0f64a8873893e3b0caf639b1b4e06e72d07074d
resource representing a document's title	Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks
resource representing a document's body	covid:a0f64a8873893e3b0caf639b1b4e06e72d07074d#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'theory' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'periods' named entity 'populations' named entity 'relaxation' »more»

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