About: Forecasting hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in South Dakota, USA.

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Forecasting hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in South Dakota, USA.
Creator	Flores, José Lio, Yuhlong Van Peursem, Dan Wesner, Chelsea Wesner, Jeff
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Anticipating the number of hospital beds needed for patients with COVID-19 remains a challenge. Early efforts to predict hospital bed needs focused on deriving predictions from SIR models, largely at the level of countries, provinces, or states. In the United States, these models rely on data reported by state health agencies. However, predictive disease and hospitalization dynamics at the state level are complicated by geographic variation in disease parameters. In addition it is difficult to make forecasts early in a pandemic due to minimal data. However, Bayesian approaches that allow models to be specified with informed prior information from areas that have already completed a disease curve can serve as prior estimates for areas that are beginning their curve. Here, a Bayesian non-linear regression (Weibull function) was used to forecast cumulative and active COVID-19 hospitalizations for South Dakota, USA. As expected, early forecasts were dominated by prior information, which was derived from New York City. Importantly, hospitalization trends also differed within South Dakota due to early peaks in an urban area, followed by later peaks in other rural areas of the state. Combining these trends led to altered forecasts with relevant policy implications.
has issue date	2020-07-24(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.22.20160184
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a07b0b084e567674033771ccd88eabe01b329d2a
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160184
resource representing a document's title	Forecasting hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in South Dakota, USA.
resource representing a document's body	covid:a07b0b084e567674033771ccd88eabe01b329d2a#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'Forecasting' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Minnehaha County' named entity 'inflection point' named entity 'disease outbreak' »more»

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