About: A Model Based Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A Model Based Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Creator	Aggarwal, Sumit Arora, Narendra Pandey, Arvind Bahuguna, Pankaj Chugh, Yashika »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background Our analysis aims to model COVID-19 pandemic in India, potential impact of various measures, along with assessment of health system preparedness and cost to manage the epidemic. Methods We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) mathematical model to predict the health outcomes under an unmitigated scenario which comprises of air travel restrictions alone, and the current scenario consisting of air travel restrictions along with 8-week lockdown. In addition, we also evaluate the effectiveness of 8-week lockdown along with intensified public health measures at varying level of effectiveness. We assessed the impact of these interventions on COVID-19 related health outcomes in comparison to the unmitigated scenario. Next, we ascertain the need for augmenting infrastructure and the costs of COVID-19 management in India. Findings In the event of a lockdown for 8 weeks, the peak of the epidemic shifts by 34-76 days, and the number of cases at the end of 8-week lockdown reduces by 69% to 97% with varying effectiveness of lockdown. However, the cumulative long-term cases remain the same. Intensification of public health surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness is estimated to reduce the cases at peak and cumulative number of infections by 70% and 26.6% respectively. The requirement of ICU beds and ventilators would reduce by 83% with intensified public health measures. The cost of managing COVID-19 in India is nearly 4.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the absence of any intervention which increases to 6.2% with intensified public health measures for COVID-19 response. Conclusion Lockdown measures delay the onset of peak, and give much needed time to health system to prepare. Strengthening the public health system response in terms of testing, isolation treatment of cases, and contact tracing needs would lead to significant gains in terms of case load, and meeting health system needs.
has issue date	2020-06-12(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.11.20128231
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	9ce9852a9600adab60e3b72e770191884a18ea1a
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128231
resource representing a document's title	A Model Based Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
resource representing a document's body	covid:9ce9852a9600adab60e3b72e770191884a18ea1a#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'measures' named entity 'cost' named entity 'Middle-Income' named entity 'GDP' »more»

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