About: Projecting Demand-Supply Gap of Hospital Capacity in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic using Age-Structured Deterministic SEIR model

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Projecting Demand-Supply Gap of Hospital Capacity in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic using Age-Structured Deterministic SEIR model
Creator	Veenapani, Rajeev Verma, Gandhi, Sumirtha Saini, Anuraag Koya, Fazaludeen »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	BACKGROUND: Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems. Therefore, it is imperative to assess supply side preparedness in tandem with demand projections for comprehensive outlook. OBJECTIVE: Hence, we attempted this study to forecast the demand for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in demand due to COVID-19. METHODS: We employed age- structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the demand under varying scenarios. Projections for documented cases were made for varying degree of mitigation strategies of a) No-lockdown b) Moderate-lockdown c) Full-lockdown. Correspondingly, data on a) General beds b) ICU beds and c) Ventilators was collated from various government records. Further, we computed the daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild, severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of India. FINDINGS: Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in demand during peak of epidemic. Also, continuing strict lockdown measures was found to be ineffective in suppressing total infections significantly, rather would only push the peak by a month. However, augmented testing of 500,000 tests per day during peak (mid-July) under moderate lockdown scenario would lead to more reported cases (5,500,000-6,000,000), leading to surge in demand for hospital resources. A minimum allocation of 10% public resources and 30% private resources would be required to commensurate with demand under that scenario. However, if the testing capacity is limited by 200,000 tests per day under same scenario, documented cases would plummet by half.
has issue date	2020-05-19(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.14.20100537
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	8f44ff8c01361e83287c000c3dd69503025f299b
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.14.20100537
resource representing a document's title	Projecting Demand-Supply Gap of Hospital Capacity in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic using Age-Structured Deterministic SEIR model
resource representing a document's body	covid:8f44ff8c01361e83287c000c3dd69503025f299b#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'commensurate' named entity 'mitigation' named entity 'study' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'surge' »more»

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