About: A delayed SEIQR epidemic model of COVID-19 in Tokyo

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: A delayed SEIQR epidemic model of COVID-19 in Tokyo Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A delayed SEIQR epidemic model of COVID-19 in Tokyo
Creator	Maki, Kazuo
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic. In order to avoid excessive restriction to the social activity, a good strategy of quarantine is needed. Several epidemic models with a quarantine compartment such as susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-removed (SEIQR) model have been applied. However, in the actual situation, the infection test and quarantine is often delayed from the beginning of the infectious stage. This article presents a delayed SEIQR model to analyze the effect of the delay of quarantine, and to suggest a guideline for the measure. The latency period (compartment E) was assumed to be 3 days, and the start of quarantine action was assumed to be delayed by 4 to 10 days from infection. The actual PCR test-positive number data from March 10th to July 18th in 2020 was analyzed to estimate a transmission rate and the basic reproduction number. The area where the infection expansion is restrained was displayed in the two parameter space (transmission rate and quarantine rate) for several possible lengths of the delay of quarantine. As a result, it was shown to be very hard to restrain the expansion of infection only by a simple quarantine action retaining the delay. As a short term measure, it was found to be necessary to reduce the transmission rate through some kind of restriction of social activity, but as a long term measure, it was found to be possible to maintain the social activity by shortening the delay of quarantine through expanding the infection test system to find earlier stage patients, including asymptomatic infectious patients. In order to shed light to this conclusion from a different viewpoint, this model was applied in another case that an additional quarantine was taken into account before the delay. The result was shown to have a similar effect as that of the shortening of the delay.
has issue date	2020-08-22(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.08.18.20177709
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	7cb776a7d943932b2c8b8f21864383a20f54128e
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.18.20177709
resource representing a document's title	A delayed SEIQR epidemic model of COVID-19 in Tokyo
resource representing a document's body	covid:7cb776a7d943932b2c8b8f21864383a20f54128e#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'infection' named entity 'social activity' named entity 'patients' named entity 'long' »more»

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2025 OpenLink Software