About: Do low TB prevalence or lack of BCG VaccinationContribute to Emergence Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome?

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Do low TB prevalence or lack of BCG VaccinationContribute to Emergence Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome?
Creator	Raham, Tareef
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Emergence of new multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is thought to be associated with COVID-19 pandemic. Covid-19 morbidity and mortality variances among countries has been suggested by previous works to be influenced BCG and previous Latent TB infection (which is reflected by TB prevalence) by possible inducing heterogeneous immunity against SARS-COV2. Aim: To examine influence of BCG status and TB prevalence on variances among countries which register new multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). Methods: We choose all countries which report MIS-C till 23/6/2020, number of cases for each 10 million capita was examined among 3 categories of countries classified according to BCG program status. TB prevalence, MIS-C no. / 10 million (M) and Covid- 19 deaths/M are taken as markers. Receiver operation characteristic - (ROC) curve, as well as some relative indicators such as (sensitivity and specificity rates), estimation area of trade - off between sensitivity and specificity, and cutoff points are used for discriminating different three pairs of countries (which have different BCG practices). Discrimination of these categories done through studied markers. 95% confidence interval of all probable combinations pairs had been measured. Results: MIS-C No/10 M capita in countries never gave BCG vaccination vs countries currently give vaccine shows area under ROC- curve equal to 0.000 with a symbiotic significant of 0.034 and (95% CI interval of 0.000-0.000) also MIS-C No/10 M capita in countries not currently give BCG vaccination ( with previous mass vaccination programs) vs countries currently give mass vaccination shows area under ROC- curve equal to 0.094 with a symbiotic significant of 0.027and ( 95% CI interval of 0.000 -0.280) Important not significant finding in MIS-C No/10 M capita in countries never gave BCG vaccination vs countries not currently give vaccine shows area under ROC- curve equal to 0.583 with a symbiotic significant of 0.683 and (95% CI interval of 0.074-0.759). Countries not currently give vaccine make discrimination in other pairs COVID-19 deaths M capita in countries never gave BCG vaccination vs countries currently give vaccine shows area under ROC- curve equal to 0.083 with a symbiotic informative and reportable value of 0.077 and (95% CI interval of 0.000-0.309 also COVID-19 deaths M capita in countries not currently give BCG vaccination vs countries currently giving vaccine shows area under ROC- curve equal to 0.188 with a symbiotic informative reportable value of 0.089 and ( 95% CI interval of 0.000-0.452). Important finding is the not significant association in COVID-19 deaths /M capita in countries never gave BCG vaccination vs countries not currently giving vaccine area under ROC- curve equal to 0.417 with a symbiotic significant of 0.683 and (95% CI interval of 0.078 - 0.755). Countries not currently giving vaccine make discrimination in third pair of countries in significant association and not in 1st pair. Regarding TB prevalence marker or discriminator the areas under curve were informative and reportable and too generating with the leftover markers in all 3 pairs signifying inverse relations with covide-19 mortality and MIS-C no. curves . Conclusion: BCG vaccinations and high TB prevalence are found in this study to be related to decrease MIS-C and COVID-19 deaths this might explain variances among countries worldwide. Further studies to confirm this relations and possible relations with other epidemics is recommended. Review of TB programs in relation to treat latent asymptomatic infections and initiate and consolidate BCG programs should be considered urgently.
has issue date	2020-07-21(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.18.20156893
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	73a43f8d4266dbe8e8c569520be039ef5305ecc2
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.18.20156893
resource representing a document's title	Do low TB prevalence or lack of BCG VaccinationContribute to Emergence Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome?
resource representing a document's body	covid:73a43f8d4266dbe8e8c569520be039ef5305ecc2#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'THESE' named entity 'TAKEN' named entity 'MILLION' named entity 'SPECIFICITY' named entity 'CHARACTERISTIC' »more»

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