About: Modeling and Simulation of the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lebanon

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About: Modeling and Simulation of the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lebanon Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Modeling and Simulation of the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lebanon
Creator	Mourad, Ayman Mroue, Fatima
source	ArXiv
abstract	In this paper, we develop a probabilistic mathematical model for the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It takes into account the known special characteristics of this disease such as the existence of infectious undetected cases and the different social and infectiousness conditions of infected people. In particular, it considers the social structure and governmental measures in a country, the fraction of detected cases over the real total infected cases, and the influx of undetected infected people from outside the borders. Although the model is simple and allows a reasonable identification of its parameters, using the data provided by local authorities on this pandemic, it is also complex enough to capture the most important effects. We study the particular case of Lebanon and use its reported data to estimate the model parameters, which can be of interest for estimating the spread of COVID-19 in other countries. We show a good agreement between the reported data and the estimations given by our model. We also simulate several scenarios that help policy makers in deciding how to loosen different measures without risking a severe wave of COVID-19. We are also able to identify the main factors that lead to specific scenarios which helps in a better understanding of the spread of the virus.
has issue date	2020-08-07(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	712099e693ce3d93aca29862e0cc4b58fc840c1b
resource representing a document's title	Modeling and Simulation of the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lebanon
resource representing a document's body	covid:712099e693ce3d93aca29862e0cc4b58fc840c1b#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'account' named entity 'model' named entity 'simple' covid:arg/712099e693ce3d93aca29862e0cc4b58fc840c1b named entity 'governmental' »more»

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