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About:
A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19
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schema:ScholarlyArticle
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covidontheweb.inria.fr
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Type:
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19
Creator
Christopoulos, Demetris
source
MedRxiv
abstract
The existence of a universal law which maps the bell curve of daily cases to a sigmoid curve for cumulative ones is used for making robust estimations about the final outcome of a disease. Computations of real time effective reproduction rate are presented and its limited usefulness is derived. After using methods ESE and EDE we are able to find the inflection point of the cumulative curve under consideration and study its time evolution. Since mortality processes tend to follow a Gompertz distribution, we apply the properties of it and introduce novel estimations for both the time remaining after inflection time and the capacity of the curve. Special properties of sigmoid curves are used for assessing the quality of estimation and as indices for the cycle completion. Application is presented for COVID-19 evolution for most affected countries and the World.
has issue date
2020-07-04
(
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)
bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.07.03.20145672
has license
medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)
6f6b2f1b22d625b31e0e9d2ac7639eb00545c2c2
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https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.20145672
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A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19
resource representing a document's body
covid:6f6b2f1b22d625b31e0e9d2ac7639eb00545c2c2#body_text
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named entity 'NOVEL'
named entity 'QUALITY'
named entity 'PROCESSES'
named entity 'FOLLOW'
named entity 'APPLY'
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