About: A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China
Creator	Wang, Yi Li, Yi Liu, Xiaoyu Hao, Meng Liang, Meng »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Importance: To predict the diagnosed COVID-19 patients and the trend of the epidemic in China. It may give the public some scientific information to ease the fear of the epidemic. Objective: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. Design: According to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. Setting: Our model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities. Participants: In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number:N_i/N_(i-1) =[(N_(i-1)/N_(i-2) )]^α，where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and α was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. Results: Based on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to March. Conclusions and Relevance: Through the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China.
has issue date	2020-02-23(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	536dc3fc3226429da5bf028cc5563bf9ac5b6311
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262
resource representing a document's title	A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China
resource representing a document's body	covid:536dc3fc3226429da5bf028cc5563bf9ac5b6311#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'accurate' named entity 'China' named entity 'Diagnosis' named entity 'FORMULA' named entity 'INCLUDED' »more»

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