About: Importance of Interaction Structure and Stochasticity for Epidemic Spreading: A COVID-19 Case Study

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Importance of Interaction Structure and Stochasticity for Epidemic Spreading: A COVID-19 Case Study
Creator	Backenköhler, Michael Großmann, Gerrit Wolf, Verena
source	MedRxiv
abstract	In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, computer simulations are used to predict the evolution of the virus propagation and to evaluate the prospective effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. As such, the corresponding mathematical models and their simulations are central tools to guide political decision-making. Typically, ODE-based models are considered, in which fractions of infected and healthy individuals change deterministically and continuously over time. In this work, we translate an ODE-based COVID-19 spreading model from literature to a stochastic multi-agent system and use a contact network to mimic complex interaction structures. We observe a large dependency of the epidemic's dynamics on the structure of the underlying contact graph, which is not adequately captured by existing ODE-models. For instance, existence of super-spreaders leads to a higher infection peak but a lower death toll compared to interaction structures without super-spreaders. Overall, we observe that the interaction structure has a crucial impact on the spreading dynamics, which exceeds the effects of other parameters such as the basic reproduction number R0. We conclude that deterministic models fitted to COVID-19 outbreak data have limited predictive power or may even lead to wrong conclusions while stochastic models taking interaction structure into account offer different and probably more realistic epidemiological insights.
has issue date	2020-05-08(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.05.20091736
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	4a98fffc76d3bb911d18e173b923d12580f89769
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.05.20091736
resource representing a document's title	Importance of Interaction Structure and Stochasticity for Epidemic Spreading: A COVID-19 Case Study
resource representing a document's body	covid:4a98fffc76d3bb911d18e173b923d12580f89769#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'individuals' named entity 'BASED' named entity 'EVALUATE' named entity 'INFECTED' named entity 'PROPAGATION' »more»

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