About: A statistical forecast of LOW mortality (< 400,000 deaths) due to COVID-19, for the whole WORLD.

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About: A statistical forecast of LOW mortality (< 400,000 deaths) due to COVID-19, for the whole WORLD. Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A statistical forecast of LOW mortality (< 400,000 deaths) due to COVID-19, for the whole WORLD.
Creator	Barbero, Cesar
source	MedRxiv
abstract	OBJECTIVE: To forecast the death toll of COVID-19 in the whole world by fitting the time series of reported deaths with a parametric equation (integrated Gaussian equation) related to Farr s law. DATA: The time series of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 produced by John Hopkins University and stored in a github repository. RESULTS: The projected total death toll will be 261680 (392520 to 183176) which represents the 0.003 % of world population. This number amounts to 0.054 deaths per 1000, while the mean in the world (all causes) is 7.7. The daily peak of deaths (7270 (+/-500)) happened the 15 (+/- 3) of April, meaning that we are in descending curve of the pandemic. The outbreak will end completely the 23th (+/-3) of June. However, already on 9th (+/- 3) of May, 2 sigma; (95.45%) of the deaths will have be occured. The projected death toll is much lower (5-10 times) than those forecasted by the Imperial College Group (ICG) even considering the best scenario of total suppression of virus transmission. Using actual mortality rates it is possible to back calculate which number of infected individuals would produce such mortality. The death toll arises from a number of infected individuals between 53 (worst case) and 3.3 million. The calculated number of infected individuals is significantly lower than that calculated by ICG (227.5 millions) with suppression.
has issue date	2020-05-01(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.26.20074377
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	40910fa3840e820b3cb4fb18414ae3422dee88d8
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20074377
resource representing a document's title	A statistical forecast of LOW mortality (< 400,000 deaths) due to COVID-19, for the whole WORLD.
resource representing a document's body	covid:40910fa3840e820b3cb4fb18414ae3422dee88d8#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'equation' named entity 'death toll' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'REPORTED' named entity 'time series' »more»

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