About: Is Time to Intervention in the COVID-19 Outbreak Really Important? A Global Sensitivity Analysis Approach

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Is Time to Intervention in the COVID-19 Outbreak Really Important? A Global Sensitivity Analysis Approach
Creator	Borgonovo, Emanuele Lu, Xuefei
source	ArXiv
abstract	Italy has been one of the first countries timewise strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of social distancing and heavy lockdown measures is posing a heavy burden on the population and the economy. The timing of the measures has crucial policy-making implications. Using publicly available data for the pandemic progression in Italy, we quantitatively assess the effect of the intervention time on the pandemic expansion, with a methodology that combines a generalized susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model together with statistical learning methods. The modeling shows that the lockdown has strongly deviated the pandemic trajectory in Italy. However, the difference between the forecasts and real data up to 20 April 2020 can be explained only by the existence of a time lag between the actual issuance date and the full effect of the measures. To understand the relative importance of intervention with respect to other factors, a thorough uncertainty quantification of the model predictions is performed. Global sensitivity indices show that the the time of intervention is 4 times more relevant than quarantine, and eight times more important than intrinsic features of the pandemic such as protection and infection rates. The relevance of their interactions is also quantified and studied.
has issue date	2020-05-04(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	3f13edf13cdb5709fadd85c3c420567edae637b7
resource representing a document's title	Is Time to Intervention in the COVID-19 Outbreak Really Important? A Global Sensitivity Analysis Approach
resource representing a document's body	covid:3f13edf13cdb5709fadd85c3c420567edae637b7#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'respect' named entity 'indices' named entity 'SUSCEPTIBLE' named entity 'RESPECT' named entity 'UNCERTAINTY' »more»

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