About: The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe
Creator	Author, Corresponding Stadler, Tanja Huisman, Jana Nadeau, Sarah Sciré, Jérémie »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The investigation of migratory patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before border closures in Europe is a crucial first step towards an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic, including inferences of the geographic location of ancestral lineages and the number of migration events into and between European regions. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei or Germany. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures.
has issue date	2020-06-12(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.10.20127738
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	3e12abb63918c8f1c42678ec93be4a52c14fbedb
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127738
resource representing a document's title	The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe
resource representing a document's body	covid:3e12abb63918c8f1c42678ec93be4a52c14fbedb#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'estimate' named entity 'border' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'inferences' named entity 'patterns' »more»

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