About: Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model
Creator	Baram, Michael Woo, Sang Riley, Joshua Ackermann, Lily Chalikonda, Divya »more»
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) carries high morbidity and mortality globally. Identification of patients at risk for clinical deterioration upon presentation would aid in triaging, prognostication, and allocation of resources and experimental treatments. Research Question: Can we develop and validate a web-based risk prediction model for identification of patients who may develop severe COVID-19, defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and/or death? Methods: This retrospective cohort study reviewed 415 patients admitted to a large urban academic medical center and community hospitals. Covariates included demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. The independent association of predictors with severe COVID-19 was determined using multivariable logistic regression. A derivation cohort (n=311, 75%) was used to develop the prediction models. The models were tested by a validation cohort (n=104, 25%). Results: The median age was 66 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 54-77) and the majority were male (55%) and non-White (65.8%). The 14-day severe COVID-19 rate was 39.3%; 31.7% required ICU, 24.6% mechanical ventilation, and 21.2% died. Machine learning algorithms and clinical judgment were used to improve model performance and clinical utility, resulting in the selection of eight predictors: age, sex, dyspnea, diabetes mellitus, troponin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and aspartate aminotransferase. The discriminative ability was excellent for both the severe COVID-19 (training area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, validation AUC=0.82) and mortality (training AUC= 0.85, validation AUC=0.81) models. These models were incorporated into a mobile-friendly website. Interpretation: This web-based risk prediction model can be used at the bedside for prediction of severe COVID-19 using data mostly available at the time of presentation.
has issue date	2020-07-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.16.20155739
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	3b909e7681826cb51d2d9e6e85855fde1533cace
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20155739
resource representing a document's title	Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model
resource representing a document's body	covid:3b909e7681826cb51d2d9e6e85855fde1533cace#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'globally' named entity 'Risk' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'presentation' named entity 'triaging' »more»

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