About: How Efficient is Contact Tracing in Mitigating the Spread of Covid-19? A Mathematical Modeling Approach

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	How Efficient is Contact Tracing in Mitigating the Spread of Covid-19? A Mathematical Modeling Approach
Creator	Afolabi, Y Biala, T Khaliq, A
source	ArXiv
abstract	Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy by developing a compartmental model for assessing its impact on mitigating the spread of the virus. We describe the impact on the reproduction number $/mathcal{R}_c$ of Covid-19. In particular, we discuss the importance and relevance of parameters of the model such as the number of reported cases, effectiveness of tracking and monitoring policy, and the transmission rates to contact tracing. We describe the terms ``perfect tracking'', ``perfect monitoring'' and ``perfect reporting'' to indicate that traced contacts will be tracked while incubating, tracked contacts are efficiently monitored so that they do not cause secondary infections, and all infected persons are reported, respectively. We consider three special scenarios: (1) perfect monitoring and perfect tracking of contacts of a reported case, (2) perfect reporting of cases and perfect monitoring of tracked reported cases and (3) perfect reporting and perfect tracking of contacts of reported cases. Furthermore, we gave a lower bound on the proportion of contacts to be traced to ensure that the effective reproduction, $/mathcal{R}_c$, is below one and describe $/mathcal{R}_c$ in terms of observable quantities such as the proportion of reported and traced cases. Model simulations using the Covid-19 data obtained from John Hopkins University for some selected states in the US suggest that even late intervention of CT may reasonably reduce the transmission of Covid-19 and reduce peak hospitalizations and deaths. In particular, our findings suggest that effective monitoring policy of tracked cases and tracking of traced contacts while incubating are more crucial than tracing more contacts.
has issue date	2020-08-10(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	399942360a0863432537bf98670a9b7d30cf0d46
resource representing a document's title	How Efficient is Contact Tracing in Mitigating the Spread of Covid-19? A Mathematical Modeling Approach
resource representing a document's body	covid:399942360a0863432537bf98670a9b7d30cf0d46#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'late' named entity 'perfect' named entity 'special' named entity 'traced' named entity 'compartmental model' »more»

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