About: Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions

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About: Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions
Creator	Zhou, Can
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has spread to 28 countries/regions with over 43,000 confirmed cases. Much about this outbreak is still unknown. At this early stage of the epidemic, it is important to investigate alternative sources of information to understand its dynamics and spread. With updated real time domestic traffic, this study aims to integrate recent evidence of international evacuees extracted from Wuhan between Jan. 29 and Feb. 2, 2020 to infer the dynamics of the COVD-19 outbreak in Wuhan. In addition, a modified SEIR model was used to evaluate the empirical support for the presence of asymptomatic transmissions. Based on the data examined, this study found little evidence for the presence of asymptomatic transmissions. However, it is still too early to rule out its presence conclusively due to sample size and other limitations. The updated basic reproductive number was found to be 2.12 on average with a 95% credible interval of [2.04, 2.18]. It is smaller than previous estimates probably because the new estimate factors in the social and non-pharmaceutical mitigation implemented in Wuhan through the evacuee dataset. Detailed predictions of infected individuals exported both domestically and internationally were produced. The estimated case confirmation rate has been low but has increased steadily to 23.37% on average. The findings of this study depend on the validity of the underlying assumptions, and continuing work is needed, especially in monitoring the current infection status of Wuhan residents.
has issue date	2020-02-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.02.15.20023440
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	317943dec06b88c1c62ef0ecd832f0d644b1d417
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023440
resource representing a document's title	Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions
resource representing a document's body	covid:317943dec06b88c1c62ef0ecd832f0d644b1d417#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'alternative' named entity 'outbreak' named entity '2019' named entity 'traffic' named entity 'MUCH' »more»

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