About: Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics - back-casting in China and forecasting in the US

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics - back-casting in China and forecasting in the US
Creator	Hermanowicz, Slav
source	MedRxiv
abstract	In our previous work, we analyze, in near-real time, evolution of Covid-19 epidemic in China for the first 22 days of reliable data (up to February 6, 2020). In this work, we used the data for the whole 87 days (up to March 13, 2020) in China and the US data available till March 31 (day 70) for systematic evaluation of the logistic model to predict epidemic growth. We sequentially estimated sets of model parameters (maximum number of cases K, growth rate r, and half-time t0) and the epidemic %22end time%22 t95 (defined as the time when the number of cases, predicted or actual, reached 95% of the maximum). The estimates of these parameters were done for sequences of reported cases growing daily (back-casting for China and forecasting for the US). In both countries, the estimates of K grew very much in time during the exponential and nearly exponential phases making longer term forecasting not reliable. For the US, the current estimate of the maximum number of cases K is about 265,000 but it is very likely that it will grow in the future. However, running estimates of the %22end time%22 t95 were in a much smaller interval for China (60 - 70 days vs. the actual value of 67). For the US, the values estimated from the data sequences going back two weeks from now range from 70 to 80 days. If the behavior of the US epidemic is similar to the previous Chinese development, the number of reported cases could reach a maximum around April 10 to 14.
has issue date	2020-04-03(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.31.20049486
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	22a64ef0a092051de373de119d918deb5278cbae
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049486
resource representing a document's title	Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics - back-casting in China and forecasting in the US
resource representing a document's body	covid:22a64ef0a092051de373de119d918deb5278cbae#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'predicted' named entity 'China' named entity 'DAILY' named entity 'PREDICT' named entity 'FUTURE' »more»

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