About: Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada
Creator	Ma, Junling Dushoff, Jonathan Bolker, Benjamin Earn, David Li, Michael
source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: Mathematical and statistical models are used to project the future time course of infectious disease epidemics and the expected future burden on health care systems and economies. Influenza is a particularly important disease in this context because it causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics. In order to forecast health care utilization during epidemics—and the effects of hospitalizations and deaths on the contact network and, in turn, on transmission dynamics—modellers must make assumptions about the lengths of time between infection, visiting a physician, being admitted to hospital, leaving hospital, and death. More reliable forecasts could be be made if the distributions of times between these types of events (“delay distributions”) were known. METHODS: We estimated delay distributions in the province of Ontario, Canada, between 2006 and 2010. To do so, we used encrypted health insurance numbers to link 1.34 billion health care billing records to 4.27 million hospital inpatient stays. Because the four year period we studied included three typical influenza seasons and the 2009 influenza pandemic, we were able to compare the delay distributions in non-pandemic and pandemic settings. We also estimated conditional probabilities such as the probability of hospitalization within the year if diagnosed with influenza. RESULTS: In non-pandemic [pandemic] years, delay distribution medians (inter-quartile ranges) were: Service to Admission 6.3 days (0.1–17.6 days) [2.4 days (-0.3–13.6 days)], Admission to Discharge 3 days (1.4–5.9 days) [2.6 days (1.2–5.1 days)], Admission to Death 5.3 days (2.1–11 days) [6 days (2.6–13.1 days)]. (Service date is defined as the date, within the year, of the first health care billing that included a diagnostic code for influenza-like-illness.) Among individuals diagnosed with either pneumonia or influenza in a given year, 19% [16%] were hospitalized within the year and 3% [2%] died in hospital. Among all individuals who were hospitalized, 10% [12%] were diagnosed with pneumonia or influenza during the year and 5% [5%] died in hospital. CONCLUSION: Our empirical delay distributions and conditional probabilities should help facilitate more accurate forecasts in the future, including improved predictions of hospital bed demands during influenza outbreaks, and the expected effects of hospitalizations on epidemic dynamics. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
has issue date	2019-09-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1186/s12889-019-7369-x
bibo:pmid	31492122
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	183e393843de9d6c653897f1039ad10af9750347
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7369-x
resource representing a document's title	Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC6731609
has PubMed identifier	31492122
schema:publication	BMC Public Health
resource representing a document's body	covid:183e393843de9d6c653897f1039ad10af9750347#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'PATTERNS' named entity 'infection' named entity 'pandemic' named entity 'hospital' named entity 'hospital' »more»

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