About: Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality
Creator	Moraga, Paula Duarte, Carlos Ballal, Tarig Ketcheson, David Ombao, Hernando
source	MedRxiv
abstract	{We describe a model for estimating past and current infections as well as future deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The model does not use confirmed case numbers and is based instead on recorded numbers of deaths and on the age-specific population distribution. A regularized deconvolution technique is used to infer past infections from recorded deaths. Forecasting is based on a compartmental SIR-type model, combined with a probability distribution for the time from infection to death. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is modelled empirically, based on recent trends in the death rate. The model can also be used to study counterfactual scenarios based on hypothetical NPI policies.
has issue date	2020-05-14(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	12ca9fbe49257feb7dfe7023bb51a0166df533bb
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972
resource representing a document's title	Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality
resource representing a document's body	covid:12ca9fbe49257feb7dfe7023bb51a0166df533bb#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'determined' named entity 'numbers' named entity 'modelled' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'death rate' »more»

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