About: COVID-19 trend in Bangladesh: deviation from epidemiological model and critical analysis of the possible factors

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	COVID-19 trend in Bangladesh: deviation from epidemiological model and critical analysis of the possible factors
Creator	Rahman, Mohammad Ahmed, Asif
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Since its first report on March 08, COVID-19 positive cases and number of deaths are increasing in Bangladesh. In the first month of COVID-19 infection, incidence of daily positive cases did follow the susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) based predictions we reported in April, but started to deviate in the following month. COVID-19 transmission and disease progression depends on multifaceted determinants e.g. viral genetics, host immunity, social distancing, co-morbidity, socio-demographic and environmental parameters. Therefore deviation in confirmed cases from predicted model may appear and warrant thorough investigation. In this short report, we tried to demonstrate and analyze the possible factors associated with the deviation which included preventive intervention strategies, socioeconomic capabilities, climatic and meteorological indexes, acquired immunity of Bangladeshi population, demographic characteristics, health indicators and food habits. Findings: The key factor responsible for the deviation was found to be the number of tests performed. Having population with low median age, young age groups are being mostly infected. Low prevalence of non-communicable diseases among them and strong immunity compared to the elderly might have kept most of them asymptomatic with silent recovery. Warm temperature, humidity and UV index of Bangladesh during this summer period might have contributed to the slow progression of infection. Longer daylight mediated immunity, fresh air circulations and ventilation, less density in rural areas and certain food habits perhaps helped the large number of populations to restrict the infection. Conclusion: Despite all these helpful determinants in Bangladesh, person to person contact is still the leading risk factor for COVID-19 transmission. Infection may increase rapidly if safe distance and preventive measures are not strictly followed while resuming the normal social and work life. A global second wave may hit in many countries in autumn and as well as in Bangladesh in mid-October when winter starts to approach. Strong collaborative action plans, strategies and implementation are needed immediately to prevent catastrophe.
has issue date	2020-06-03(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.31.20118745
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	12893aa539717df5ccaa94d15d84cb5c057fcdbf
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.31.20118745
resource representing a document's title	COVID-19 trend in Bangladesh: deviation from epidemiological model and critical analysis of the possible factors
resource representing a document's body	covid:12893aa539717df5ccaa94d15d84cb5c057fcdbf#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'positive' named entity 'predicted' named entity 'factors' named entity 'started' named entity 'epidemiological' »more»

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