About: A Contribution to the Mathematical Modeling of the Corona/COVID-19 Pandemic

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A Contribution to the Mathematical Modeling of the Corona/COVID-19 Pandemic
Creator	Bärwolff, Günter
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic models. Especially a good choice of β as the number of others that one infected person encounters per unit time (per day) influences the adequateness of the results of the model. For the example of the actual COVID-19 pandemic some aspects of the parameter choice will be discussed. Because of the incompatibility of the data of the Johns-Hopkins-University to the data of the German Robert-Koch-Institut we use the COVID-19 data of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) as a base for the parameter estimation. Two different mathematical methods for the data analysis will be discussed in this paper and possible sources of trouble will be shown. Parameters for several countries like UK, USA, Italy, Spain, Germany and China will be estimated and used in W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick's SIR model. Strategies for the commencing and ending of social and economic shutdown measures are discussed. The numerical solution of the ordinary differential equation system of the modified SIR model is being done with a Runge-Kutta integration method of fourth order. At the end the applicability of the SIR model could be shown. Suggestions about appropriate points in time at which to commence with lockdown measures based on the acceleration rate of infections conclude the paper.
has issue date	2020-04-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	1107150765aca0f01b971697f813e05e7400f125
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229
resource representing a document's title	A Contribution to the Mathematical Modeling of the Corona/COVID-19 Pandemic
resource representing a document's body	covid:1107150765aca0f01b971697f813e05e7400f125#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'pandemic' named entity 'integration' named entity 'Contribution' named entity 'FOURTH' named entity 'INCLUDING' »more»

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