About: Inverted covariate effects for mutated 2nd vs 1st waveCovid-19: high temperature spread biased for young

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Inverted covariate effects for mutated 2nd vs 1st waveCovid-19: high temperature spread biased for young
Creator	Demongeot, Jacques Iggui, Siham Rachdi, Mustapha Seligmann, Hervé Vuillerme, Nicolas
source	MedRxiv
abstract	(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19 2nd waves, following a study presenting negative associations between 1st wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature; (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined 1st and 2nd waves in 28 countries; (3) Results: 1st wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, temperature, time since wave onset, and median age. Spread rates decrease above 1000m, indicating high UV decrease spread rate. For 2nd waves, associations are opposite: viruses adapted to high temperature and to infect young populations. Earliest 2nd waves started April 5-7 at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). 2nd waves occurred also at warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Spread decreases in most (77%) countries. Death-to-total case ratios decrease during the 2nd wave, also when comparing with the same period for countries where the 1st wave is ongoing. In countries with late 1st wave onset, spread rates fit better 2nd than 1st wave-temperature patterns; In countries with ageing populations (examples: Japan, Sweden, Ukraine), 2nd waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect children. (4) Conclusions: 1st wave viruses evolved towards lower spread and mortality. 2nd wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting children and replace (also in cold conditions) 1st wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.
has issue date	2020-07-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.12.20151878
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	0714d2831eabd0d6af3bc5c2edaf2adb21ea0d7f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151878
resource representing a document's title	Inverted covariate effects for mutated 2nd vs 1st waveCovid-19: high temperature spread biased for young
resource representing a document's body	covid:0714d2831eabd0d6af3bc5c2edaf2adb21ea0d7f#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'higher' named entity 'Algeria' named entity 'time' named entity 'cold' named entity 'waves' »more»

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